Sunday, August 9, 2009

RunningBack Rankings

The balance of importance may be shifting slightly towards receivers, but runningbacks still get many more touches than receivers and many more scoring chances. You can't win a standard fantasy league without productive runningbacks. Without further ado, below are my RB rankings for the coming season (assuming no PPR).

1. Adrian Peterson - Bar-none, simply the best runningback in the game. If the Vikings can get even average play out of the QB position, AP has a legit shot at 2,000 yards this season. This guy is primed for his best season yet, and should be the first RB off of the board in virtually any scoring format.
2. Brandon Jacobs - His ranking drops significantly in PPR leagues. But in standard scoring formats, this guy is a beast. With Derrick Ward's move to Tampa Bay, Jacobs should be good for 100 more carries this season (that's 400-500 more yards, and 5 or 6 more TDs).
3. Ladainian Tomlinson - He's old. His production is slipping. Blah, blah, blah. Even in last year's "down" year, LDT put up over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs. This year he's healthier, motivated, and given pathetic state of the "competition" in the ACF West, LDT is primed for a major bounce-back year.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew - After 3 years of splitting caries with Fred Taylor, MJD finally has the Jacksonville backfield to himself. The Jags still love to run the ball. Look for MJD to be among the league leaders in touches and yards from scrimmage. Unfortunately for MJD, the Jags aren't as good as the teams featuring my top 3 backs, so his TDs will lag behind those guys a little bit.
5. Steve Slaton - A top 10 back in his rookie season, Slaton's numbers will only get better as Houston's offense improves as a whole. Slaton is a very good receiver, who does not come off of the field on passing downs like some other "elite" backs. He's good for at least 25 touches every week. He should be both productive and consistent.
6. Steven Jackson - This guy is finally healthy, and with the defection of Torry Holt to the Jags, SJack becomes options a), b) and c) for the rebuilding Rams. With the Rams finally investing top picks in their offensive line, look for SJack to return to his perch among the top fantasy RBs.
7. Matt Forte - Another second year RB who had a phenomenal rookie campaign. Forte should get fewer carries with Jay Cutler joining him in the Chicago backfield, but those carries should be more productive because Cutler's presence will keep that eight defender out of the box. Also, Forte is a very good receiver, and should continue to be a beast in PPR leagues, as the failure of the Bears' anemic receiving corps to get open forces Cutler to check down to the runningback.
8. Brian Westbrook - When healthy, B-West remains among the most dangerous offensive players in the game. He is the engine that makes the Eagles offense go. But all of those touches over the past few seasons have caught up to him. The Eagles have acquired several talented offense players in the past few drafts, including McCoy (a must-handcuff for Westbrook owners) to help ease the burden on B-West and keep him fresh for the playoff run. More help means fewer yards and receptions for Westbrook. But the Eagles O' should be clicking this season, and B-West may have the opportunity to set a career mark in TDs. In all of those tough NFC East games, Andy Reid will still lean on his veteran to make the clutch plays to bring the W's home. B-West should be very productive, but you must protect yourself for the 1-3 games that he is sure to miss by drafting McCoy late.
9. Frank Gore - As much as we all like Mike Singletary, the fact of the matter is, the 49ers are not very good. The QBs and receivers surrounding Frank Gore are terrible, and his O-line is only average. Frank will get plenty of touches, and rack up a ton of yards. But scoring opportunities will be lacking, and the lack of TDs will keep Gore from climbing into the elite class of fantasy back. Though his production will not be explosive, Gore's guaranteed touches week-in and week-out will make him a solid, if unspectacular, fantasy performer.
10. Pierre Thomas - Over the past two seasons, every time PT has been given the opportunity to be the Saints' primary ball carrier, he has produced in waves of yards and TDs. This season, he comes in as the unquestioned primary ball carrier for a Saints offense that should improve on last season's #1 overall ranking. An improved Saints defense should provide PT with increased scoring opportunities, as well as more opportunities for the Saints to protect fourth quarter leads by pounding the rock between the tackles. Reggie Bush will make his share of big plays, but that won't diminish PT's weekly touches and production.
11. Michael Turner - The Burner is a very capable ball carrier, but his receiving numbers are non-existent. Last season, he caught a whopping 6 passes for 41 yards. Even if he is able to match his rushing production from last season, his total yardage will still fall short of the other backs listed ahead of him on the list. And, with Tony Gonzalez coming to town and Matt Ryan continuing to develop, and with the Falcons playing a much tougher schedule this year, the Falcons will have to shift to passing the ball a bit more, and the Burner's yardage and TD opportunities will suffer.
12. Marion Barber III - No matter how hard this guy runs or how productive he is, MBIII always seems to find himself in a shared backfield. This year, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice are expected to vulture many of MBIII's opportunities. But TO's departure should lead the Cowboys to implement a more balanced attack than in past years. There will be plenty of RB touches to go around, and MBIII should produce as both a runner and a receiver. Unfortunately, if Jones or Choice ever get "hot", MBIII might find himself having a few quiet games. So, there's a little risk of inconsistency with this pick, but his numbers (especially TDs) should be there at the end of the season.
13. Reggie Bush
14. D'Angelo Williams
15. Clinton Portis
16. Ryan Grant

No comments: